Plans2Reality

Efficiency Doesn't Matter

Not for mass-market solar panels, anyway.

The goal of mass-market solar, otherwise known as grid-tied PV, is to generate electricity for the grid, so we don't have to burn as much coal, oil, etc. It's a fine idea.

But anyone in the fild will tell you that PV electricity is still a lot more expensive than coal-fired electricity, even when the sun is shining - never mind darkness. (And even if you factor in a pretty high carbon tax. Coal is cheap.)

Therefore, the goal is to get the cost of PV electricity down as far as possible - ideally as cheap as coal, even cheaper if possible.

Now, electricty is sold in units of kilowatt-hours (kWh). So we need to get the cost of PV, in terms of dollars per kWh, as low as possible. It doesn't matter how EFFICIENT a PV panel is, only how much it costs. Sunlight (unlike coal) is free, so it really doesn't matter if a panel is 10%, 15%, or 20% efficient - not if such efficiency comes at a cost.

There's nothing _wrong_ with efficiency, per se. And I am sure the boffins will find ways to improve it. But anyone who asks what a panel's efficiency is doens't understand the problem. The only meaningful question is, what's the cost per kilowatt-hour?

Moore's Law: Still Not Dead

This time around, it's iSuppli presiding over the funeral. (via the Register: LINK) As is often the case with negative predictions of many types, it will be proven both wrong and right. Wrong, because Moore's Law is not dead yet, but right, because they have identified a real problem.

Heck, there's _alway_ a real problem. Usually several. When Moore coined his law in 1965, you could just about measure IC features sizes with a ruler and your eye. Masks were hand-cut in rubylith. The industry has had to solve many serious and significant problems - some directly relating to making wafers; others related to design. How the heck to you design even a one-million transistor circuit? Let alone test it....

Design tools and mask charges are huge - and iSuppli is correct that they cannot get much "huger". Great; so somebody will invent something. Design tool companies will not make any money selling tools if no one can afford to buy them. Maybe they'll rent. Maybe it's Software-as-a-Service. Heck, if I knew the answer I wouldn't be blogging, I'd be doing.

But somebody out there does know the answer. I wonder who?

Moore's Law Conquers Television

This is not really news - it happened a few years ago, although it is hard to pick a specific date.

TVs have gone fully digital, and I don't mean the broadcast format. Even today's TVs deal with analog broadcast by digitizing it and using DSPs and dedicated digital hardware.

Furthermore, with the takeover of LCD and plasma displays, the display itself is now subject to Moore's Law. (Gordon never said he was referring only to silicon, after all.)

What does this mean for the industry?

First of all, because TV is a high-volume market, it means that the larger chip companies will dominate it. Cost of silicon will be the key driver, and the bigs guys with big fabs always win that war.

Second, it means that TV will become a client-server architecture. One could say that TV has always been client-server, and that broadcast radio and TV invented the concept, so to speak, but client-server in the computer context has a different meaning. TV will consist of different types of servers offering content to a wider range of clients. Over-the-air broadcast won't go away, but numerous types of Internet delivery will become more common. Hulu, Apple's iTunes, and NetFlix on-demand are just part of it.

TV isn't going away. But it's going to look a lot more different in five or ten years than it does today. Moore's Law is at work.

A Modest Proposal

Even solvent banks don't seem to be lending much, and the VC community has pulled up the gates. So, a modest proposal to get the economy going that probably will not cost too much:

A tax holiday for the proceeds from any new VC or similar business investment made in the next 12 months. No capital gains, no income tax, no nothin'.

I will leave it to the boffins and policy wonks to hammer out the definitional details, but this is the gist of it.

Note that this is NOT the usual investment tax credit. Those are okay, but are more loop-hole than incentive. This is aimed at venture-oriented, higher-risk investments - new businesses or LARGE expansions of existing ones.

Write your Congress-person!

A Year Goes By As If A Minute

I knew I hadn't posted in awhile, but I was surprised to discover it has been a year since our last post. Much has happened, so let's move right to the update phase.

The iPhone 3G rocks. It is in all respects cool, and nearly perfect, and I am extremely satisfied with it. I do wish it offered a tether capability, but that is the only issue I've found. The GPS is suprisingly useful, email and web actually work well and are visibible, and typing is as easy as it was on my Treo 650. Last but not least, integration with the Mac is of course seamless; better that between the Treo and the Mac.

Recommendation: buy one.

Plans2Reality World Headquarters is expanding. We're in the process of moving into newer, larger quarters. Why, we'll even have a server room for the noisier computers. As part of the expansion we are adding wireless networking equipment from Firetide. Client access is still based on Apple Airport technology, but backhaul is using Firetide gear. So far, smooth sailing.